Away Starter
Ben Brown
Home Starter
Mlodzinski
Welcome to today’s MLB betting preview and prediction for the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates on May 25, 2026. In this post, we will analyze the starting pitcher metrics, bullpen form, and lineup data to provide a data-driven prediction.
⚾ 1. Starting Pitcher Comparison & Sabermetrics
Chicago Cubs starter Ben Brown presents as an elite arm, boasting an impressive 2.10 ERA and a significantly better xERA of 2.62, indicating strong underlying performance. His xwOBA of 0.259, coupled with a minuscule 4% Barrel% and 38.6% HardHit%, highlights his exceptional ability to limit quality contact and suppress opposing hitters.
Conversely, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski shows concerning metrics, with an ERA of 3.96 and a much higher xERA of 4.66, suggesting he has been somewhat fortunate. His xwOBA of 0.339, along with a 7.2% Barrel% and a high 51.3% HardHit%, indicates he struggles significantly more with allowing hard-hit balls and quality contact compared to Brown.
🔥 2. Pitch Arsenal & Style Analysis
Ben Brown’s exceptional sabermetrics, particularly his low xwOBA and Barrel%, suggest a pitching style characterized by effective command and an ability to induce weak contact or swings and misses. His low HardHit% indicates he likely employs a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance and prevent solid contact, making him a formidable challenge for opposing lineups.
Carmen Mlodzinski’s higher xERA and HardHit% point to a pitcher who is more susceptible to giving up damaging contact. His arsenal, while perhaps featuring velocity, appears to lack the deception or movement necessary to consistently prevent hitters from squaring up the ball, which could lead to significant offensive opportunities for the Cubs.
🛡️ 3. Lineup Matchup & Offensive Pressure
The Chicago Cubs bring a potent lineup featuring established hitters like Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki, alongside emerging talents. This lineup offers a blend of on-base ability, power, and speed, capable of putting significant pressure on opposing pitchers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup includes key contributors such as Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz, who can provide power and run production. However, when comparing the two, the Cubs’ lineup appears to have a deeper and more consistent offensive threat, giving them a slight edge in run-scoring upside against Mlodzinski.
🔄 4. Bullpen Outlook
The Chicago Cubs’ bullpen enters this contest with a solid 3.56 ERA and a respectable 1.22 WHIP across 194.2 innings pitched, demonstrating reliability in late-game situations. Their ability to strike out 172 batters further underscores their effectiveness in closing out games.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen, with an ERA of 4.13 and a WHIP of 1.37 over 205.0 innings, appears less stable. While they have accumulated 207 strikeouts, their higher ERA and WHIP suggest a greater propensity to allow baserunners and runs, which could be a critical factor in a tight contest or if Mlodzinski exits early.
🎯 5. Key Takeaways & Overall Conclusion
The Cubs hold a significant advantage in starting pitching with Ben Brown’s elite metrics and also boast a more reliable bullpen. While both lineups have potential, Mlodzinski’s struggles with quality contact could open the door for the Cubs’ offense. The Pirates will need a strong offensive showing against Brown to stay competitive, which seems unlikely given his dominant stats.
✅ Final Betting Pick
👉 Pick: Under 8.0